| 01 | | THE FAILURE MODE |
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| The ordinary distribution system is not what produces the number. Its contribution has been stable at roughly two hours annually for more than a decade [1]. What moves the national figure is a small set of days on which a region loses service for a long time. |
| That makes the household's exposure a tail rather than an average. Customers in South Carolina averaged nearly 53 hours of interruption in 2024, while customers in Arizona, South Dakota, North Dakota and Massachusetts averaged less than two [1]. An eleven-hour national mean describes almost no individual household. |
| Frequency is a separate variable from duration. Hawaii customers experienced 4.4 interruptions in 2024, the most of any state [1], and a grid that fails briefly and often presents a different engineering problem from one that fails rarely and for days. Equipment sized for one is not sized for the other. |
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| 02 | | YOUR END / THEIR END |
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YOUR END HOUSEHOLD DOE's cost benchmark prices the representative 8 kilowatt residential system at $2.95 per watt dc for panels alone and $4.59 per watt dc when paired with 13.5 kilowatt-hours of storage, in 2024 dollars and excluding any subsidy [2]. The storage increment is therefore about $1.64 a watt, roughly $13,100 on that system, with operation and maintenance rising from $34 to $64 per kilowatt dc per year [2]. What 13.5 kilowatt-hours buys depends entirely on what is connected to it. Held to a critical load of about 500 watts, it would run for roughly a day; at 2 kilowatts it would run under seven hours. The 2024 national average of 11 hours [1] is inside that envelope only at the low end, and the states that produced the long outages are the ones a single pack does not cover. Recharging depends on the panels, which depends on the weather that caused the outage. COST / FUNCTION / LIMITS |
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THEIR END COMPANY-REPORTED Sunrun (Nasdaq: RUN) installs that equipment and, under its subscription model, retains ownership of much of it. Storage attachment reached a record 74 percent of customer additions in the second quarter of 2026, against 70 percent a year earlier, and networked storage capacity reached 4.6 gigawatt-hours across more than 266,000 installed systems [3]. Subscribers totalled 1,034,738 at 30 June, up 10 percent [3]. The counterweight is the base those rates are measured against. Subscriber additions were 19,793 in the quarter, down 31 percent year over year; storage capacity installed fell 15 percent to 332 megawatt-hours and solar capacity installed fell 23 percent to 174 megawatts [3]. Net cash used in operating activities was $186 million, and full-year cash generation guidance was revised to a range of $200 million to $375 million [3]. A record attachment rate on a shrinking base describes a narrower market buying more per customer. POSITION / CAPACITY / RISK |
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| 03 | | THE INCIDENT |
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| Hurricanes Beryl, Helene and Milton, 2024. The three storms together accounted for 80 percent of the hours U.S. customers spent without electricity that year [1]. Outside the 50 states the arithmetic is different again: customers in Puerto Rico went without electricity for more than 73 hours on average in 2024, of which 43 hours were attributed to major events [4]. |
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| 04 | | THE TWO DECISIONS |
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| The household decision is roughly $13,100 of storage increment against a typical year of about two hours without power and a tail that ran past fifty in one state, which makes it a purchase about variance rather than about expected value. The exposure decision is an installer whose attachment rate is at a record while installed volumes and subscriber additions fall, where the question is whether a smaller, storage-heavy market funds the model. The premise weakens materially if 2025 and 2026 reliability data return major-event hours to the four-hour pattern of the prior decade, marking 2024 as a hurricane year rather than a trend, or if storage prices fall far enough that the increment stops being a capital decision at all. |
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| 05 | | SOURCES |
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| [1] | U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Hurricanes in 2024 led to the most hours without power in the United States in 10 years," Today in Energy, drawing on the Electric Power Annual 2024. Customers experienced an average of 11 hours of electricity interruptions in 2024, nearly twice the annual average of the preceding decade; major events including Hurricanes Beryl, Helene and Milton accounted for 80 percent of the hours without electricity; interruptions attributed to major events averaged nearly nine hours in 2024 against nearly four hours per year from 2014 through 2023; interruptions not triggered by major events routinely average about two hours per year; South Carolina customers experienced nearly 53 hours while customers in Arizona, South Dakota, North Dakota and Massachusetts averaged less than two hours; Hawaii customers experienced 4.4 interruptions, the most of all states. Link |
| [2] | U.S. Department of Energy, Integrated Energy Systems Office. "Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmarks," updated September 2, 2026. The representative residential PV system is rated 8 kWdc; Q1 2025 residential PV-only benchmarks are $2.78/Wdc minimum sustainable price and $2.95/Wdc modeled market price with O&M of $34/kWdc-yr; the residential PV plus 13.5 kWh storage benchmark is $4.33/Wdc MSP and $4.59/Wdc MMP with O&M of $64/kWdc-yr; all values in 2024 U.S. dollars, and benchmark costs exclude subsidies payable to the system owner. Link |
| [3] | Sunrun Inc. (company-reported). "Sunrun Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results," August 5, 2026, Form 8-K exhibit. Storage Attachment Rate of 74 percent in the second quarter of 2026 against 70 percent in the prior-year period; Networked Storage Capacity of 4.6 gigawatt-hours as of June 30, 2026 across more than 266,000 installed storage and solar systems; Subscriber Additions of 19,793, a 31 percent decrease year over year; 1,034,738 Subscribers as of June 30, 2026, up 10 percent; Storage Capacity Installed of 332 megawatt-hours, down 15 percent; Solar Capacity Installed of 174 megawatts, down 23 percent; net cash used in operating activities of $186 million; Cash Generation guidance revised to a range of $200 million to $375 million for 2026. Link |
| [4] | U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Puerto Rico electricity customers experience more frequent and longer outages," Today in Energy. On average in 2024, customers in Puerto Rico went without electricity for more than 73 hours, of which 43 hours were attributed to major events such as hurricanes; excluding major events, Puerto Rico customers experienced on average 27 hours of interruptions per year between 2021 and 2024, against about two hours for mainland customers. Link |
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| Positioning and market data only. Not investment advice or a recommendation. |
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